The Fed's new boss has a very big problem

PCE inflation — the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge — just came in at 4.5% annualized for Q1 2026. That's more than double the Fed's 2% target, and it's accelerating.

Here's the problem: Kevin Warsh just sworn in as Fed chair last week, nominated specifically to push interest rates lower. But you can't cut rates into 4.5% inflation without making things significantly worse. And you can't hike aggressively without tipping a slowing economy into recession.

So the most powerful economic policymaker in the world is stuck — and historically, that kind of paralysis is itself a warning sign. When the Fed can't act, the window for a policy mistake opens wide.

This is exactly the kind of signal Recession Tracker was built to surface. Most people know inflation is high. Far fewer understand how it interacts with Fed policy, GDP trajectory, and credit spreads to affect actual recession risk. We track all of it in real time and translate it into plain English — no economics degree required.

Curious what the PH community makes of Warsh's position. Is there a clean exit from this, or is the Fed genuinely boxed in?