Blockbuster manufacturing data is hiding a warning signal

The latest Chicago PMI came in at 62.7 — a 13.5-point surge from last month's contraction, one of the largest single-month jumps ever recorded. On the surface it looks like a manufacturing revival. But the S&P Global breakdown tells a different story: the Inventory of Purchases Index hit its highest reading in the survey's 18-year history. Businesses aren't buying because demand is strong — they're stockpiling before tariff-related price hikes make inputs more expensive.

That's demand pull-forward. Activity that looks healthy today is borrowed from the future. When the panic-buying stops, there will be a void. And it's landing on top of an already fragile consumer base — sentiment at record lows, savings rate at a four-year low, real income falling.

This is exactly the kind of nuance that gets lost when people read a headline PMI number without context. Strong number, worrying reason. I built Recession Tracker to surface this kind of signal — not just the top-line read, but what's underneath it, in plain English, updated in real time.

Curious what other founders here are seeing: are you stress-testing your business against a demand cliff in H2 if the stockpiling wave reverses? How are you thinking about the risk?