Americans' Savings Rate Just Hit a 4-Year Low — While Prices Keep Rising

April's BEA data landed this week and it's worth paying attention to: consumer spending rose nominally, but real (inflation-adjusted) spending grew just 0.1%. Personal income fell 0.1%. To bridge the gap, Americans cut their savings — the personal saving rate dropped to 2.6%, the lowest since June 2022.

Here's what makes it worse: the biggest driver of spending was gasoline. A $28.8 billion surge in energy goods — not discretionary purchases, just filling up the tank. PCE inflation is still running at 3.8% year-over-year. Real per capita disposable income is down 1.4% from a year ago.

This is what a slow squeeze looks like before it becomes something more obvious. Consumers are still technically spending, but they're doing it by depleting savings while real income falls. There's not a lot of runway left.

I built Recession Tracker to surface exactly this kind of data in plain English — savings rate, real income trends, PCE, and a dozen other leading indicators — so people can see what's happening before it shows up in the headlines.

What's the community's read on the consumer right now? Resilient softish landing, or one shock away from a more serious pullback?