PullValue - Know what a pack is worth before you rip it

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Expected-value tracker for Courtyard mystery packs: live EV, observed odds and hit rates from ~10,000 recorded pulls. It tells you when not to buy. A pack with three pulls can show a spectacular EV ratio precisely because it has three. So every pack must clear a gate — 30+ pulls, fresh data, 70+ data quality — before it can carry a buy call. The budget tool can recommend holding cash. No resale estimates, no AI-generated metrics. Every formula published. Next.js, TypeScript, Supabase.

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Hey Product Hunt 👋 I built PullValue because pack trackers have a structural problem: they always have a recommendation. Every day there's a "best pack." But that isn't how data works. A pack with three recorded pulls can show a spectacular EV ratio precisely because it has three pulls — one lucky card carries the average. Rank that as an opportunity and you've pointed someone at the worst-evidenced thing you track. That actually happened here. Early on, my own homepage headlined a pack as "GREAT VALUE" at 1.87x. It had one recorded pull, and the data was 23 days old. The pack's own page correctly said NO DATA — the homepage just never asked. So I rebuilt the whole thing around one gate. A pack needs 30+ indexed pulls, fresh data, and a 70+ data-quality score before it can carry a buy call. Everything else is labelled an early read or excluded outright. Today that's 19 of 116 packs. The part I'm most pleased with is the budget tool. Put in $250 and if nothing has a positive expected return, it tells you to hold the cash. Unspent money returns exactly zero, and zero beats every negative — a tool that can't recommend inaction will always recommend action. It also publishes what it can't do: no resale values, no liquidity scores, no AI-generated numbers. Every formula is public. Curious what people think about the tradeoff — is a tool that often says "nothing qualifies today" useful, or just frustrating? I've had that argument with myself a lot. Free to check. Happy to answer anything about the methodology.