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I posted the same comment in four different threads over a month. The views were 221, 15, 12, and 9.

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Same effort every time, same comment, just a different thread each time. The spread came entirely from which thread I picked, not from anything I changed about what I wrote.

That has changed how I think about distribution. It stopped being a channel decision and became a research step before I write anything: how fresh the thread is, how many replies it already has, whether the person asking is actually going to read what comes back.

Curious how other people here think about this. Do you have a way of predicting which thread is worth the time before you write the comment, or is it mostly trial and error for you too?

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i've stopped expecting every comment to performs well. sometimes the right threads makes all the difference.

Β That's basically where I landed too. Same comment, same effort, and the only variable that actually moved the outcome was which thread I picked.

I've noticed something similar, too, and am trying to imagine which threads (here on PH) could work better before people start making tens of comments.

I think position is essential, as someone else said, because being the first to comment in an "average" thread is better than being the 35th in a high-performing thread.

But yeah, generally speaking, I think it's hard to make accurate predictions.

I usually look at two aspects:

  1. The type of thread: more generic threads (like this one you posted) usually attract more people because it's easier for everyone to express their opinion. On the contrary, very specific threads, like those about a new product feature of an app that just launched, only attract that app's followers.

  2. obviously πŸ˜‚ (and I think there's no need to explain further). But you have to be fast enough to catch her threads as soon as she publishes them, or your comment risks being buried.

Β  Β The generic vs specific split tracks with what I'm seeing too. This one's in p/general and already has more replies than any of my product specific threads pulled for the same effort.

Β hahaha :D I became a reference :D

Did it convert though?

Β Honestly, no. I only tracked views, not what happened after. Views told me which thread had reach, but not whether anyone actually engaged beyond scrolling past it. Next time I'd track replies and profile clicks per thread too, not just views.

I've seen this exact thing, posted the same comment on a launch day thread and then again on a random tuesday thread a week later, same effort, same wording, and the launch day one got roughly 8 times the views.

Β 8x lines up with what I saw too. Launch day traffic alone seems to swamp whatever the wording or timing of the comment does.

There's a real tradeoff between a fresh thread with barely any competition and a busy one where your comment gets buried under 30 others within the first hour or so.

Β That's basically the tradeoff I was trying to name and failed to. Fresh and quiet versus busy and buried, and I picked on gut feel every time, not a rule.

Where did you publish the comment? Which social media?

Β Right here on Product Hunt, four different forum threads, not other social media. Same comment text, just posted under whichever discussion fit each time.

Β But how did you know how many impressions the comment got? Only threads show the impressions, not comments.

Β Right, those were the thread's total view count, not per comment. I posted, waited a few days, then read the number PH shows on the thread itself. No way to isolate just the comment's own reach, only the container it sits in.

9 views huh. rip that thread.

Β Yeah, that one just sat there. Same comment as the other three, just a dead thread pick.

Counterpoint, maybe it's not the thread. first comment on a slow thread can beat comment 30 on a busy one.

Β That's fair, I didn't control for position either. Wasn't first on any of the four, so I can't rule out that it mattered more than the thread itself.

Agree it's a research step now. i'd also check if the OP replies to people at all, because dead engagement kills even a good comment.

Β Good addition. I've started scrolling an OP's reply history before I comment now. If they never reply to anyone, I skip it no matter how busy the thread looks.

Great observation, Abdullah. That matches what I've found too; thread choice does more work than the writing itself. A great comment 12 replies deep gets buried; the same effort on something fresh gets seen and often gets a reply.

I check how recent the post is, how many comments it already has, and whether the poster actually replies to others before deciding it's worth writing anything. Not fully predictable, but it's stopped being trial and error for me.

Β That's close to what I narrowed down to, though I run it in reverse order now. Check whether the OP replies to people first, since that's the fastest disqualifier, then look at recency and comment count only for the threads that pass. Saves time scrolling busy ones that were never going to get read anyway. What's your cutoff on comment count before you skip one?

Β That's even better. And to answer your question, around 8 to 10; past that, it usually reads as a pile-on rather than something the OP circles back to individually.

Β This thread is already past 30 comments and does not feel like a pile-on yet, at least from the replying side. Might be that individual replies from the OP are what keeps it from crossing into that territory regardless of count. Does the pile-on feeling come from the count itself, or from noticing the OP's replies get shorter and more generic as the thread grows?

Β It's the OP's behavior, definitely. Count alone doesn't do it, this thread proves that. It tips into pile-on territory when the OP's replies flatten out, generic instead of specific. Once that happens, the count stops mattering.

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