Week 2 Since my site has gone live! 🥳

The biggest change so far has been the data collection layer.

At first, the product was mostly about organizing a trade idea thesis, evidence, contradictions, risk, and outcome. But once the site started collecting forward evidence, the more interesting question became.

A few early numbers:

• Current stock evidence is showing 81.8%, but only across 11/60 decisive samples, so it is still too early to trust.

• Options evidence is showing 100%, but only across 4/30 decisive samples, which is exactly the kind of fragile result the system should avoid overreading.

• One signal family, price-volume momentum, is at 0% across 12 decisive samples, so it is being treated as a failure instead of being promoted.

  • A stronger combined-regime method is showing 75% across 16 decisive samples, but it still needs more evidence before it can be trusted.
    

    

Although a high hit rate, it is unfortunately not the same thing as a reliable edge.

So the product now keeps execution locked while it waits for enough decisive evidence, paper outcomes, source quality, liquidity context, and market-regime history.

Still early, still research-only, but the data collection side is becoming the most important part of the product.