Roadmap

# Roadmap

Last updated: 2026-04-18

Nature of this document: gate-based, not calendar-based

Llatria's next 6–12 months depend on decisions that are not Llatria's to make alone — Kalshi's posture on partnership, advisors' willingness to engage, accelerators' acceptance decisions, investors' terms. A calendar roadmap would be fiction; a gated roadmap is honest.

This document organizes work by gate. Each gate is a decision or milestone that unlocks the next phase. When a gate opens, Llatria moves forward. When one stays closed, the plan pivots.

For the underlying strategic framework, see [`03 Strategic Paths.md`](./03%20Strategic%20Paths.md).

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## Where Llatria is today (2026-04-18)

- Product: shipped, deployed, running. 13 Llatria markets, 258 trades, 7 users in alpha. Full stack covered by code review — 33 findings fixed, no critical issues outstanding.

- Capital: self-funded, zero external.

- Legal / regulatory: framing hypotheses drafted; no counsel engaged.

- Partnerships: none active. Bandman Advisors outreach sent 2026-04-18 (awaiting response).

- Team: solo founder (Anthony Carbonaro).

Everything below is contingent on the gates.

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## Gate 1 — Bandman conversation (near-term, in flight)

### Status

Outreach email sent 2026-04-18. Awaiting response.

### What opens if Bandman engages

- Clear regulatory guidance on the Phase 1 tech-layer framing

- Honest test of whether Path A (Kalshi partnership) is realistic from an advisor who knows both sides

- Potential warm introduction to Kalshi BD (Bandman knows them)

- Scoped engagement: regulatory counsel on call + incremental project work

- Credibility for future conversations — "Bandman Advisors is on our side" is a signal that shortens every other conversation

### What Llatria does in the meantime

- Draft rulebook stub derived from Kalshi's public rulebook (prep for any regulatory conversation)

- Map Llatria against the 23 DCM Core Principles with more rigor than [`06 Regulatory Posture.md`](./06%20Regulatory%20Posture.md) has today

- Prepare a one-pager (done — [`04 One-Pager.md`](./04%20One-Pager.md)) and a 3-minute Loom walkthrough of the live product

### What happens if Bandman doesn't respond or declines

- Identify 2–3 alternative regulatory advisors (other ex-CFTC alumni, senior lawyers at Milbank / Willkie / Katten)

- Reach out directly

- Consider whether to open Kalshi BD conversation cold (no advisor-mediated intro)

### Decision that needs to be made at this gate

Does Llatria have competent regulatory counsel willing to engage? If yes, Path A is realistic to pursue. If no, Llatria either keeps searching or accepts that Path A will be harder to navigate without inside guidance.

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## Gate 2 — Accelerator application outcomes (near-term)

### Status

Not yet applied. Target set identified in [`Docs/26 Accelerator Shortlist.md`](../Docs/26%20Accelerator%20Shortlist.md).

### What to apply to and in what order

1. Y Combinator — apply regardless of cohort proximity (continuous applications). Single best signal.

2. FinTech Innovation Lab NYC — the regulatory-mentor network matches Llatria's actual needs almost perfectly.

3. a16z CSX — Polymarket is in the portfolio; category recognition is baked in.

4. Techstars NYC Fintech — reasonable selectivity, fintech brand.

5. MassChallenge FinTech (Boston) — non-dilutive safety net.

### What opens if accepted

- Capital ($120k–$500k depending on program)

- Brand signal for downstream Series A

- Demo Day at the end — partner / investor / press introductions that would take 6 months to assemble independently

- Peer cohort — other founders navigating similar regulatory + partnership problems

- Specific to FinTech Innovation Lab: mentor access to compliance / legal / regulatory people inside banks

### What Llatria does regardless of outcome

- The act of writing accelerator applications forces the clearest version of the narrative

- Each application becomes a reusable asset for investor conversations

- Reject letters are useful — they come with feedback that sharpens the pitch

### Decision point

If one or more accelerators accept Llatria into a cohort starting within 90 days, reshape the rest of the roadmap around that program's timing. If no acceptances land within 6 months, plan for a direct pre-seed raise without the accelerator signal.

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## Gate 3 — Kalshi BD conversation (downstream of Gate 1)

### Status

Not opened. Current hypothesis is that Bandman (if engaged) opens this conversation in a few months.

### What opens if Kalshi engages on a partner program

- Concrete partnership terms to negotiate (OAuth / partner API, market-creation endpoint, rev-share percentage)

- Timeline for real-money launch — likely 6–12 months from first substantive conversation to deployed partnership

- Commercial framework — the shape of how Llatria and Kalshi exchange value

### What to ask for (from [`Docs/24`](../Docs/24%20Kalshi%20Integration%20and%20Production%20Launch%20Readiness.md)):

API asks:

- OAuth / partner account binding

- Partner-level market-creation endpoint for graduation

- Bulk position migration endpoint for graduation

- WebSocket market data feed

- Higher rate limits on trading endpoints

Commercial asks:

- 30–50% rev-share on trading fees for Llatria-originated markets

- Non-exclusivity on Llatria's side

- 90+ days termination notice

- KYC / AML passthrough confirmation

### What happens if Kalshi declines a partnership

- Path A is effectively blocked. Two options remain:

  - Path B direct: pursue Llatria's own DCM from scratch. Requires substantially more capital (pre-seed → bridge → Series A) before any real revenue.

  - Extended alpha: continue operating demo-only. Build creator community and brand. Revisit Kalshi (or a new entrant) when conditions change.

- Explore adjacent partnerships: any regulated derivatives exchange that could white-label event contracts on top of their infrastructure.

### Decision at this gate

Is Path A live? If yes, compress the timeline and accept any reasonable terms to get users on real money quickly. If no, commit fully to Path B capital stack and prepare for a 3-year DCM engagement as the primary plan.

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## Gate 4 — Pre-seed round (near-term, pursued in parallel)

### Status

Not raised. Target range: $750k–$1.5M. Targeting post-money valuation in the $5M–$10M range, standard pre-seed terms.

### What unlocks funding

1. Bandman engagement (Gate 1) — signals regulatory seriousness to investors

2. An accelerator acceptance (Gate 2) — provides signal + partial capital

3. An active Kalshi conversation (Gate 3) — proves the partnership path is real

4. Live product (already shipped)

5. Clear commercial model (documented in [`07 Commercial Model.md`](./07%20Commercial%20Model.md))

### What the $750k–$1.5M covers

18 months of runway at ~$50k/month operating through Kalshi-partnership launch:

- Founder salary (modest, deferred where possible)

- Fractional regulatory counsel (~$2–5k/month, likely Bandman-shaped)

- First engineering hire mid-way through the window

- Legal for Terms of Service, Privacy Policy, risk disclosures ($15–25k one-time)

- Infrastructure upgrade (managed Postgres, observability) — required before real-money launch

- Marketing / PR reserve for partnership-launch announcement

### What opens after the raise

- Two-person+ team (founder + senior engineer)

- Legitimate ability to execute a Kalshi partnership on a real commercial timeline

- Runway to clear Phase 1 launch without panic-fundraising during a regulatory negotiation

### If the raise doesn't happen in the target window

- Extend self-funding runway (possibly with consulting / part-time income)

- Reduce scope — defer legal work, stay lean, wait for the partnership conversation to catalyze a better raise

- Consider alternative capital structures: venture debt (inappropriate pre-revenue), grants, RBI (not a fit either)

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## Near-term roadmap — if all gates open favorably

Rough ordering, not calendar-precise.

### Month 1–3

- Bandman engagement begins; initial regulatory scope of work

- 2–3 accelerator applications submitted; interview process starts

- Pre-seed investor conversations open (concurrently with accelerators)

- CFTC Core Principles rigorous mapping completed

- YC application (if in an open window) submitted

### Month 3–6

- Accelerator acceptance (if achieved) shapes the program timeline

- First real introductions to Kalshi BD (via Bandman or direct)

- Pre-seed raise closes

- First engineering hire begins

- Legal work starts: ToS, Privacy Policy, risk disclosure language

### Month 6–12

- Active partnership negotiation with Kalshi (terms, technical integration)

- Infrastructure hardening: managed Postgres, observability, CSRF, Sentry

- Expanded demo volume: marketing push to build waitlist + pre-partnership engagement

- State eligibility geoblock implemented

- Moderation pipeline for creator-originated markets built

### Month 12–18

- Partnership launch: first real-money trades on Llatria routed through Kalshi

- Tax reporting integration (Kalshi handles KYC and 1099s in Phase 1)

- Post-launch metrics instrumentation

- Series A conversations begin — gated on partnership traction

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## Medium-term — Phase 1 live operations (months 12–36)

Assumes a live Kalshi partnership by month 18.

- Growth focus: user acquisition for markets that perform well. The markets that graduate at a high rate become case studies.

- Creator economy: creator earnings dashboard, creator leaderboard, top-market-creator highlight features.

- Cross-category expansion: sports, politics, finance, culture each have distinct audiences and distinct market-creation patterns. Onboarding flows specific to each.

- Operational hires: customer support, BD, growth marketer.

- Series A preparation: traction narrative built around real graduation rate, creator retention, market velocity.

- DCM path initiation: with Series A closed, begin formal CFTC engagement for Phase 2.

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## Long-term — Phase 2 DCM (months 24–60)

Runs in parallel with Phase 1 operations once Series A is closed.

- Year 1: regulatory strategist hired, outside counsel engaged, preliminary rulebook drafted, informal CFTC engagement begins

- Year 2: formal DCM application filed, surveillance staff hired, bank partnership for custody established

- Year 3: pre-approval operational build-out, migration plan from Kalshi-partner flow to Llatria-native DCM

- Year 3+: CFTC designation order issued; migrate users onto Llatria's own DCM

Refer to [`03 Strategic Paths.md`](./03%20Strategic%20Paths.md) and [`06 Regulatory Posture.md`](./06%20Regulatory%20Posture.md) for the detailed Path B breakdown.

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## Engineering work — always-active track

Independent of the strategic gates, engineering continues. The current code review backlog ([`Docs/25 Code Review Findings.md`](../Docs/25%20Code%20Review%20Findings.md)) identifies 61 findings not yet fixed, tiered by urgency. Priority order:

### Before real-money launch (launch blockers)

- CSRF middleware (E1/P3)

- Sentry integration (T2) — production observability

- Managed Postgres with backups verified (multi-AZ or at least replicated)

- Stuck-GRADUATING recovery (H1)

- Outbox pattern for failed Kalshi credits (B2/B3) — blocked on real Kalshi API semantics, but design can start earlier

### Before scale (nice-to-have at 10k users)

- GitHub Actions CI/CD — manual SSH deploys break when team grows

- Prometheus + Grafana or Datadog — metrics beyond Sentry

- Chart accessibility (R2) — WCAG 2.1 AA compliance

- Moderation pipeline for creator markets

- Rate limiter migration to Redis (distributed)

- Geographic eligibility geoblock

### Product polish (continuous)

- Onboarding flow for first-time users

- Trade confirmation emails

- Creator earnings dashboard

- Account settings / profile page

- Mobile UX audit

- Partial-sell functionality

- Email notification system (beyond magic link)

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## Things that would restructure this roadmap

The following would invalidate the current plan and require a full rewrite. Each is worth monitoring:

### Favorable unlocks

- Kalshi publicly launches a partner program. Makes Path A obviously correct; compresses the entire timeline.

- Polymarket reaches a settlement with the CFTC that allows US operation. Alters the competitive landscape. Llatria would need to reposition against a well-funded direct competitor.

- A crypto exchange (Coinbase, Kraken, FTX-successor) pivots into regulated event contracts. Potential partner or potential acquirer.

- The CFTC issues favorable guidance on creator-originated markets. Accelerates everything.

### Unfavorable unlocks

- A CFTC enforcement action against Kalshi that restricts the types of markets allowed. Llatria's partnership framing is narrowed or collapses.

- A state-level legal action succeeds in carving out event contracts as gambling. US addressable market shrinks.

- Kalshi gets acquired by an incumbent (CME, ICE). Strategic posture and partnership openness change unpredictably.

- A catastrophic failure in the prediction market category — a major manipulation event, a high-profile fraud — that colors the whole space.

### Internal unlocks that would accelerate

- A co-founder hire with regulatory, legal, or BD background. Compresses the timeline on multiple gates simultaneously.

- A strategic angel — someone with Kalshi / CFTC / fintech regulatory weight — willing to put their name on Llatria.

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## Commitments — what Llatria will NOT do

Negative commitments matter. These are choices being actively rejected:

- No real-money operation without regulatory cover. Either the Kalshi partnership is live, or the product stays in play-money mode. Llatria will not operate in the gray.

- No offshore / crypto pivot. The thesis is legal US operation; a pivot to Polymarket-style offshore undermines the differentiation.

- No premature scale. No aggressive marketing, no paid acquisition, no hype cycle until the infrastructure + legal + partnership fundamentals are solid. Building an audience on a foundation that can't hold it has ended careers.

- No leverage / margin / exotic contract types. Binary event contracts only. Added complexity attracts regulatory scrutiny and doesn't materially improve the creator or trader experience at this stage.

- No tokens / crypto mechanics. The bonding curve is math borrowed from AMMs, but Llatria is emphatically not a crypto project. US-regulated, USD-denominated, dollar-cleared.

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## Summary

Llatria's next 12 months are gated on four decisions that are not Llatria's alone to make: Bandman engages, an accelerator accepts, Kalshi opens a partner program, and investors write a pre-seed check. The work Llatria controls is preparing for each of these conversations — in code, in docs, in narrative. Each gate that opens unlocks specific work; each gate that stays closed reshapes the plan toward an alternative.

Everything is visible and legible to anyone reading this. This document is the running record of what Llatria is trying to do, what it's waiting on, and what happens under each realistic set of outcomes.