Skeptic - The options backtester honest enough to say no
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Type your options strategy in plain English. Skeptic interviews you on the fuzzy bits, runs it on real minute-by-minute options data with fills at the actual bid and ask, then tries its hardest to prove you just got lucky: hidden history, rolling windows, 1,000 reshuffles, nudged settings. Most backtesters flatter you. This one argues to make sure you never lose real money. Six runs free, no card.
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Hey Product Hunt, Sahil here 👋
I'm an options trader. I trade most mornings.
A while back I built a strategy that looked amazing in a backtest. It lost money within a month. When I dug in, the backtest had been giving me prices nobody actually gets, and the "edge" only worked in one calm stretch of history. The tool hadn't failed me. It had told me what I wanted to hear.
So I built the backtester that argues with me instead. That's Skeptic!!!
How it works:
1. Describe your options strategy in plain English, like "sell a 30-delta put on SPY every week, close at 50% profit or 21 days."
2. It asks about anything you left vague, so nothing gets guessed.
3. It runs the idea on real options prices, using the prices you'd actually get, not the pretty ones.
4. Then it tries hard to prove you just got lucky: hides part of the history, tests every time period, reshuffles your trades 1,000 times, and nudges every setting to see what breaks.
5. If your idea survives, it tells you exactly where it's fragile. If the evidence is thin, it says "not enough evidence" and stops.
A few honest things up front:
- It covers SPY, QQQ and IWM today. More when the data is good enough.
- A "no" is a real answer. It costs one credit, and the app tells you before you spend it.
- The code is public on GitHub, so you can read exactly how it works. It's not open-source licensed, just open to read.
- It's a research tool, not financial advice. It never tells you to buy or sell anything.
Pricing: one run free with no account, five free with an account, $10 one-time for 50 more. That's it
Where this goes: today it argues. Next it teaches (real-time coaching on entries and exits, with the thesis, zero execution). Then paper trading beside you. Then, gated hard, assisted execution with your rules and your size caps.
Please try to break it. Pitch it your favorite strategy, and if it refuses you, post the verdict here. I'll be in the comments all day.
One more thing: the first 50 people who post a refused verdict in this thread get 15 extra credits on me, granted by hand ✌️