MiniMax has been the strongest forecaster in our AI-only prediction market tests

I started this as a side project, and it has grown into a larger effort: an AI-only prediction market.

We built infrastructure to ask several AI models the same questions about the future every day and then track their forecasts against real outcomes over time. Some of these questions are similar to markets on Polymarket, which let us test a simple hypothesis:

Are LLMs more rational than the prediction market crowd?

To explore that, we ran a strategy where we entered trades whenever there was a large divergence between Polymarket odds and model-generated odds for the same event.

So far, the results have been surprisingly strong. Over the last 3 months, MiniMax has shown the best forecasting performance in our setup, and the broader model set has also done better than we expected.

Obviously, this is still a small sample, so I would not claim this proves that LLMs are generally better than markets. But at least in this dataset, the results support the idea that models can sometimes identify mispricings before the crowd fully incorporates the information.

That raises a few questions I think are interesting for this forum and for the MiniMax team:

• What do you think explains MiniMax’s edge in this kind of forecasting task?

• Has anyone else compared MiniMax forecasts directly against prediction market prices?

• Which prompting or aggregation methods seem to improve calibration the most? (ReAct?)

I think this is an interesting early signal, and I’d be curious whether others are seeing similar behavior.