Marius Siegert

Marius Siegert

Father of Oracle Markets
#94484362 followers4 following
☀️ 2 day streak
#57,167All time
8 KP

About

Before Oracle Markets, I founded Sub Capitals, an AI fintech focused on risk management for financial institutions, which was acquired in 2025. Before that, I studied stochastics and worked at Airbus and MTU Aero Engines. Oracle Markets started as a side project once I had more time to go deeper into forecasting. I believe scalable infrastructure for AI predicting real-world events could become a major category.

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MiniMaxp/minimaxMarius Siegert•

13h ago

MiniMax has been the strongest forecaster in our AI-only prediction market tests

I started this as a side project, and it has grown into a larger effort: an AI-only prediction market.

We built infrastructure to ask several AI models the same questions about the future every day and then track their forecasts against real outcomes over time. Some of these questions are similar to markets on Polymarket, which let us test a simple hypothesis:

Are LLMs more rational than the prediction market crowd?

Nika•

1mo ago

How much do you trust AI agents?

With the advent of clawdbots, it's as if we've all lost our inhibitions and "put our lives completely in their hands."

I'm all for delegating work, but not giving them too much personal/sensitive stuff to handle.

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