The best onboarding test is whether users can predict the next screen

Polished onboarding can still be confusing if each step feels like a surprise. After the first action, ask a new user what they think will happen next. Their prediction exposes whether the product's mental model is clear before completion rates do.

If five people finish but all five expected a different result, the funnel is technically working and the product is still teaching the wrong thing.

Where in your onboarding do users most often predict the wrong next step?