Agile Team Forecasting Spreadsheet - Simple MC Forecasting Spreadsheet using Team Historical Data

Product hunters this is the first thing I've ever commented on. Use this and support Troy - he is brilliant.

Hi Product Hunters. This spreadsheet performs Monte Carlo forecasts for Agile software development teams using historical team data if available or range estimates if not. It doesn't have any macros or code, it's pure spreadsheet formula goodness and even (mostly) works in Google Sheets. I originally made it available to get the Agile industry out of simplistic (flawed) estimation and forecasting techniques. This spreadsheet introduces probabilistic forecasting in an accessible way. What is probabilistic forecasting? It is the ability to give answers with a degree of likelihood. It allows us to opt-in to a higher likelihood of achieving that forecast, for example, "85% likely delivering on or before ..." The original spreadsheet has had hundreds of downloads over the years and this week I released a major update (the first, sorry....) adding the most requested features and finding ways of stopping the most common mistakes I've seen. Features - 1. Scope is estimated as a range in either Story Points or Story Count (you just need to choose one) 2. Delivery pace can either use historical team velocity/throughput or range estimates (with the new feature being low-most likely-high three value ranges) 3. It gives the duration and date results at given probabilities, for example, 85% certain to deliver on or before 7/7/2021 4. Tracks actual remaining work over time to confirm that actuals are falling within the predicted burndown 5. Incorporates risks that might delay delivery, for example, 30% chance "Performance is poor under prod peak load" and that needs more work to "possibly" be done. These risks are incorporated into the forecasts so you can put a $ value on solving them (or not) 6. Team Focus percentage can be used to communicate what could happen if this was the only work the team had to do (focus) I find many teams use this spreadsheet as their first steps into estimating less (if at all) and communicating better with stakeholders about more achievable delivery plans. At the end of the day, this spreadsheet helps have better conversations about what is achievable given teams' historical or estimated delivery pace, helping build more trust and happier people. Enjoy and give feedback.

If you are into spreadsheet magic, there is a lot to learn in the hidden sheets 1. How to do monte carlo simulations 2. How to create triangular distributions 3. How to measure and rank the impact (sensitivity) of inputs 4. How to chart hundreds of series in a chart without going mad (well, too late) This spreadsheet took a long time to get "right" and take a look at the internals to see how you can do similar.

I use this with every development team I work with to both teach them how to forecast as well as to come up with the forecasts they report to their Directors. It's a very valuable tool!

This Forecasting Spreadsheet looks good in terms of developing agile teams