What makes a reorder recommendation trustworthy enough to act on?

I am testing a read-only inventory decision workflow for small Shopify stores, and the hardest problem is not calculating a stockout date — it is making the recommendation credible enough for a merchant to change a real purchase order.

The current explanation shows sales velocity, supplier lead time, safety stock, incoming inventory, MOQ rounding, estimated revenue at risk and cash required. It never places an order or edits inventory.

If you manage inventory, which evidence would you need before trusting a reorder recommendation? And which signal would make you ignore it immediately?