How likely is AGI in the next five years? A look at money vs. science

I came across Deutsche Bank’s latest report on AI, and it sparked an interesting thought experiment: how likely is it that we’ll see AGI (AI that thinks and learns like a human) within the next five years?

The report highlights a fascinating divergence: the view from money vs. the view from science.

• Money: the probability inferred from trillions poured into data centers, Nvidia chips, and servers. Investors seem to be betting that AGI is inevitable.

• Science: the probability inferred from research papers and AI development models. Experts are far more cautious, suggesting the realistic probability is only 20%.

What I take from this:
AI is real and transformative, but the hype around AGI might be ahead of reality. Expect volatility, overpromised outcomes, and valuable lessons along the way. Meanwhile, AI continues reshaping work, attention, and human behavior.

I’d love to hear the community’s perspective:

• Are you seeing this “money vs. science” gap reflected in your own AI projects or investments?

• How do you approach AI opportunities with both caution and ambition?