Have your ever overestimated your numbers while starting you distribution journey?

While I was starting distribution of my first saas, one thing which I overestimated was that the sales would happen very quickly as the product I made was good enough for it. Turns out, the product did not even had a market fit. I also ran ads with a very small budget and thought it will easily be gained within a few days, and I was very wrong here.

AI also does the same thing. If you ask it to expect some numbers based on what people experience for your saas when you distribute with some method X, it will show some very aspirational numbers. But, when ask it to be honest or practical or brutally honest for the same, it's answer changes (in some cases, significantly).

Have ever been with this problem?

What do you expect when you are starting your distribution journey?