What makes an online forecast credible to you?

People make forecasts every day across sport, politics, technology and finance. However, once the outcome is known, it can be difficult to tell who has been consistently accurate and who was simply confident on one occasion.

When deciding whether to trust someone’s forecast, which signals matter most to you?

• A public track record
• Written reasoning
• A stated confidence percentage
• Experience in the subject
• Community agreement or disagreement
• Something else entirely

This is the problem I am exploring with Eroteme, where forecasts, reasoning and results contribute to a measurable public record.

I would be interested to hear which signals you personally find most credible.