People make forecasts every day across sport, politics, technology and finance. However, once the outcome is known, it can be difficult to tell who has been consistently accurate and who was simply confident on one occasion.
When deciding whether to trust someone s forecast, which signals matter most to you?
A public track record Written reasoning A stated confidence percentage Experience in the subject Community agreement or disagreement Something else entirely
This is the problem I am exploring with Eroteme, where forecasts, reasoning and results contribute to a measurable public record.
Eroteme is a social forecasting platform where people explore real-world questions, publish what they think will happen and explain why. Unlike simple polls, every forecast records the user’s confidence and is checked when the outcome resolves, creating a measurable track record over time. Users can follow forecasters, discuss their analysis, compete on leaderboards and use Eroteme AI for deeper research before publishing their own view.
