Every prediction market ranks traders by profit, but over a few dozen bets, profit is mostly luck. Convexly is an independent skill-vs-luck audit for Polymarket wallets. Paste any wallet address and in about 30 seconds get its realized edge with a 95% confidence interval, calibration by market category (Brier score), and an Edge Score against a frozen 8,656-wallet reference cohort. Free, no signup. Frozen methods, public data, and negative results that stay published.