I ran sales and I was tired of walking into board meetings with one number and no idea how wrong or really achievable it was. So for a year I ran my forecast in a spreadsheet instead. Every deal got my own win probability, not the CRM's stage weighting, and I simulated the quarter a few thousand times to see the spread. Over that year my forecast error went from roughly 50% to about 14%, not because I got better at guessing, but because I finally had a record of how I guessed. This is that spreadsheet, made usable. You type your open deals in during the review, put a rough probability on each, and it plays the quarter out 10,000 times. You get the range you'll actually land in, your odds against target, and the two or three deals causing most of the doubt, which is your agenda for Monday, rather than the whole pipeline. Then it keeps score. Commit to a number and when the period closes it's compared against what landed, so you find out whether you run hot or cold and by how much. The forecast is free permanently and needs no account, nothing leaves your browser unless you sign in. The track record is the paid half, and honestly it's worth nothing until you have a few months behind you, so build the history first. Two things I'd rather say than have you find: it's built for 10–30 deals of uneven size, and above about a hundred even deals the weighted number is close enough that you don't need this. And the track record is empty on day one by definition. I'd genuinely like to know whether the range changes what you'd say in a pipeline review, or whether it's just a prettier number.

The Pipe Review

Your CRM prints one number. Your pipeline implies a range.

Your CRM prints one number. Your pipeline implies a range.