I look at a lot of early-stage companies fast and never had a good way to remember how confident I actually was on a call before the outcome rewrote my memory of it. Logging a prediction with a confidence percentage and getting asked 30-60 days later whether I'd still make the same call is a genuinely different habit than journaling, it's closer to keeping receipts on my own judgment. The check-in flow where you tag new info as it comes in without changing your original prediction is the part that makes the later calibration view actually mean something.
The 30-60 day check-in is great but it's a single fixed window. Some decisions resolve in days, others take years, so a way to set a custom review date per decision instead of the fixed range would make the calibration data more honest across different types of calls.
I already use Day One for general notes, but it just captures what happened, not what I predicted or how confident I was beforehand. Reckon is narrower on purpose, it's structured around a prediction and a resolution date rather than a blank page, which is exactly what a general journal doesn't force you to do.
Hey @rolandleth
Outcomes can be right for the wrong reasons, so tracking the reasoning & confidence feels way more useful than a normal decision journal.
to answer your question directly - calibration absolutely makes sense outside forecasting, I just don't think most people would use that word for it. I screen early-stage startups fast, sometimes dozens a day, and the thing I never have is a record of how confident I actually was on a pass or a yes before I knew how it turned out. hindsight rewrites that instantly. the 30-60 day "would you still make this call" check-in is the part that sold me, that's the exact gap between a note app and a real record of judgment. one question - when the new info you tag as "positive" or "negative" mid-decision turns out to be irrelevant to the actual outcome, does that get factored into the calibration score at all, or does it just sit there as a log entry with no scoring consequence
@galdayanΒ Thanks for the detailed reply! I'm glad it clicks with you and regarding "calibration" as a word... I always felt it's a bit clunky, even though it made sense to me, so it just stuck. Curious if you have any other alternatives?
Regarding your question, it does not get factored in. Calibration is solely based on your confidence vs outcome (averaged across your decisions). What you log along the way is more like a history for yourself (and positive/negative also helps to easily scan the history).
@rolandlethΒ makes sense, that's a cleaner split than I expected - so the log entries are really just for you to spot patterns later, not part of the score itself. on alternatives to "calibration" - I don't have a better single word honestly, most of the ones I'd reach for (accuracy, judgment) undersell the confidence part. maybe something like "track record" framing could work as a subtitle even if the feature stays named calibration internally
@yelyzaveta_kibetsΒ Reckon does help on just this, with two notifications: one before the review date (in a future version one on the review date), and another one after you resolve it, the "would you do this again" question. All date intervals are customizable.
@rolandlethΒ The 'would you do this again' question after resolving is such a nice touch β that's exactly the part hindsight usually eats. What review interval do people actually stick with? I'd probably set 2 weeks and then snooze it forever haha
@yelyzaveta_kibetsΒ I don't really know, I don't have analytics in it, but it also depends on the timeframe of the decision. Something that requires a followup in 3 months? I'd probably set a checkin reminder two weeks prior, but set 1 week for something that requires a followup in 1 month.
But next version will have a reminder for: checkin, review, overdue review, so at least you get three shots at it π
@rolandlethΒ Ha, three shots is much better odds than one. Can I turn them off individually though, or is it all or nothing? I'd probably kill the middle one and keep 'overdue' as my guilt trip












Reckon
Hey, happy to hear itβs working out for you and thanks for the feedback! Iβll look into it, maybe itβll go in the next version.