Launching today
Lumina Markets
Trade your world.
16 followers
Trade your world.
16 followers
Lumina Markets is a US prediction market platform. It turns the outcomes of real-world events, from elections and economic data to culture and climate, into tradable contracts whose prices reflect market-implied probabilities and that settle when the outcome is known.
Hey Product Hunt, Morgan here. I run marketing at Lumina, and @emmalia , @owenchenn , and @tomzorz_ from the team are in the comments all day too.
You can buy a stock if you think a company will do well. But you can't easily take a position on the thing that actually moves it: the Fed's next decision, who wins the Senate, which AI lab is ahead at the end of the year, whether a hurricane makes landfall. That's what Lumina is for.
Every market is a Yes or No question, the price is the market's odds (38¢ on Yes is about a 38% chance), and it moves as the news does. Sell any time before it's decided, or hold until it settles.
What's different about it:
It's a real brokerage account. Lumina is a CFTC-registered introducing broker, your account is carried at Interactive Brokers, and trades execute on ForecastEx, a CFTC-designated contract market. Lumina Markets, Interactive Brokers LLC, and ForecastEx LLC are affiliated. It's also why signup asks for ID.
Open positions earn interest at a variable rate while they wait to settle, whether you picked Yes or No.
Simple fees: a penny per contract to the exchange, plus a 0.35% commission on what you trade. No account or deposit fees.
Every market page shows the price history, the rules, and the source it settles on.
Web, iOS, and Android, for US residents 21 and over.
Which market would you want us to list next?
Trading event contracts involves substantial risk of loss and is not appropriate for all.