When I was born, there were around 3.5 billion people on Earth. There are now twice as many. If the "can haves" of the world continue to live longer, won't we accelerate the already worrying resource issues being faced today, and cause a bigger divide between them and those that can't elongate their lifespans?
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Hunter
@therealsjr This is probably the most serious issue around longevity -- the divide between the haves and the have nots. There is already a big divide between life expectancy in rich countries (almost 90 years) vs poor countries (around 49 years). We know that the rich always get access to new tech before the poor, so that could make the gap widen. The question, then, that really matters, is how long before the tech rolls out to everyone?
@soniaarrison I'd suggest longer than most people think. Take the humble phone, for example. It took us from its invention in the late 1800's until only a few years ago to reach 75% of an ever-growing World population - the mobile phone being the accelerant in this case. Although technology adoption has improved and increased in pace with every generation, it still takes a lot longer than commonly understood for any new technology to become widespread and mainstream. Going to read your book with great interest - thanks for this excellent AMA.
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@therealsjr It's true that the cell phone took a long time from invention to commercialization (there were regulatory/legal barriers, I believe). If you look at how long it took for the cell phone to roll out once it was commercialized, it was faster than electricity, the telephone, or the personal computer. And then the Internet rolled out even faster than the cell phone. So, to some, it looks like tech is now rolling out faster as time goes on. I'm not sure biotech will fit on that line exactly -- it's up for debate about whether it is like the other information technologies.
@soniaarrison I think you're right. I also believe that a number of moral, etical, regulatory, and cultural barriers will impede biotechnology too. We've already seen some of that with stem cell research, for example.
Besides the obvious (sleep, nutrition, exercise), what are the best ways we can keep ourselves healthy, both mentally and physically, to ensure we get more years and that all those extra years can we useful, fruitful ones? What are the most promising pharma or therapeutic products in the pipeline (or available now) for longevity?
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@tymrtn Tissue engineering is the most advanced tech that is already helping a select number of people. Bladders, tracheas, vaginas, skin, and even parts of fingers have already been regrown for patients using their own stem cells (therefore no rejection). Heart valves, lung tissue, etc aren't too far behind. Gene therapy is starting to look pretty good now too with the development of a new editing technique called crispr cas9. Once we can safely re-write our own code, there's a lot of repair that can be done.
@soniaarrison any supplements or nutrients that seem to be particularly promising? I believe Ray Kurzweil was taking upwards of 150 of them a day for a while there...
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@tymrtn The Island was a bit disturbing because it posited taking a clone's life in order to save the original human. With regenerative medicine, there will hopefully be no need to leave your original body -- just keep repairing it like a vintage car.
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@tymrtn I honestly don't think scientists know enough about supplements (let alone the personalized part of it) to make good recommendations. It's an area that could use a lot more funding and research. And, of course, we are now learning how important the microbiome is to that area.
It is my pleasure to introduce Sonia Arrison for an AMA today at 1 PM PST. Sonia is author of the best-selling book "100 Plus, How the Coming Age of Longevity Will Change Everything, From Careers and Relationships to Family and Faith." Ask questions in advance...! :)
@jeffumbro I sit on the board of Singularity University alongside Ray Kurzweil. He's super-bright and he is starting to look younger to me every time I see him.
There is a great quote from Seneca: "It's not that we have a short time to live, it's that we waste a lot of it."
All the people I see talking about living forever and obsessing about health seem to just take for granted that quantity is the most important variable. I'm not sure it's as self-evident as they think it is. If you gave the average person 25 more years, wouldn't Parkinson's Law just come into play? I'm not so sure they or anyone would be that much more fulfilled or happy. I guess I'm not convinced it would change that much about humans.
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@ryanholiday Longer healthspans will mean more time to do everything: invent, play, hang out with family, and – yes – waste time, if one desires. Not everyone uses their time wisely now, and in the future, when people have longer and healthier lives, that will be true as well. BUT a lot of people won’t waste their time and they will be the ones to benefit most from longer lives.
Thanks so much for joining us today! I am fascinated does the potential for humanity to greatly extend our lifespan scare you and worry you in terms of sustainability? Excluding Elon Musk's plan to move to Mars, what solutions can be found for a massively over populated planet? Would love to hear your thoughts? Thanks so much again!
Harry
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@harrystebbings What? You don’t want to move to Mars? Joking. The population question is a good one. It’s unclear what will happen to population as people live longer lives. I’m not convinced that overpopulation is imminent.
The most important thing to keep in mind is that population growth comes more from births than from a slowing of death rate. By 2050, fertility rates (FR) are expected to decline from 2.55 children per woman today to 2.02 children per woman for all women in the world, including those in developing countries (you need 2.1 for growth).
But let’s say FR stayed somewhat where it is today. There was an interesting study from U Chicago scholars that showed that even if humans became immortal and never died, Sweden’s population would only increase by 22 percent over 100 years. That’s definitely an increase, but not as big as you might have expected.
Hi Sonia! I'm wondering how long the average person is likely to live? How much is that going to change in next 10 yrs?
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@lejlahunts It's extremely difficult to predict how quickly health extending technologies will hit mass market, so that makes it difficult to predict how quickly life expectancy will climb. Historically, world life expectancy has more than doubled over the past two centuries. The next doubling will happen faster than that.
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