BondStats CFE-01 - Reconstruct the market move — then measure what remains.

BondStats CFE-01 is a counterfactual market reconstruction engine for fixed-income analysis. Instead of simply displaying what markets did, CFE-01 estimates the market move implied by observable financial drivers across multiple model horizons and compares that reconstruction with reality. The difference becomes a Residual Vector.

I built CFE-01 around a question that kept bothering us: how much of a market move can actually be reconstructed from the financial conditions surrounding it? Most market tools stop at what happened. CFE-01 builds a counterfactual market state from multiple model horizons, compares it with the observed move, and isolates the residual that remains. From there, you can examine driver ablation, structural novelty, historical residual behavior, uncertainty, and potential unknown-driver candidates. An important distinction: the residual is not automatically “mispricing,” fair value, or a forecast. It is simply the part of the observed move the reconstruction did not capture. We also wanted this to feel like an actual research instrument rather than another financial dashboard, so the interface was designed specifically around the reconstruction process. Decompose. Reconstruct. Understand. I’d especially love feedback on what you would want to investigate next with a counterfactual engine.

BondStats CFE-01 - Reconstruct the market move — then measure what remains.

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