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How will the stock market act this year (Nasdaq, S&P500, Dow)?

Michael Kurek
8 replies

Replies

Stephen
The big boys such as JP Morgan and Bloomberg and predicting this year to actually be decently okay, small increases here and there. But that's one part optimism and one part trying to get investors more comfortable investing again. I personally think it's going to be fairly sideways but will decrease if the Russia/Ukraine war escalates and spills into neighbouring countries. Of course covid always has the ability to change the landscape at a moments notice but I'm of the belief that lockdowns are a thing of the past with the current climate. I know for a fact that retail investors are not excited to invest currently and that's taking a lot of capital out of the market, which is being felt across the board. Retail is funny though, sentiment could change within the next 3-4 months.
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Michael Kurek
@smcn Yeah big firms want people to keep investing, whether good for the individual or not. They'll keep taking in the money. Retail investors should see last years, and maybe this years decline as an opportunity.
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Rex Kumaran
Good discussion point. Forecasting is hard, especially when trying to guess where things are a year from now. For example, this article link below from MarketWatch summarizes the 2023 year-end forecasts for the S&P 500 from the larger players. Deutsche think it will be 4,500, GS 4,000 and BNP 3,400. Given the S&P closed at 3,895 on Friday, most seem to indicate they see it higher but at varying levels of bullishness. However, given the volatility we experienced last year, the analysts 2022 record wasn't so great. I would guess 2023 would spring a few surprises as well so would lean towards either DB or BNP being correct rather than the majority of the pack which pins the index at +/- 200 points from Friday's close. https://www.marketwatch.com/stor... However, I believe for individual investors looking to grow their wealth over the medium to long term, it's perhaps better to just regularly invest in the stock market rather than trade it. Good luck with your project btw! Retail investors or traders need as much help as possible.
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Michael Kurek
@rex_kumaran I agree. Forecasting is extremely difficult. And many times big firms and analysts get it wrong. I can't wait to see whether their projections about where the S&P's price will be correct at the end of the year. Appreciate it! We're trying hard to grow the newsletter!
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Aleksandr V
Hi Michael, I'm looking into a little bit another parameter - how many purchases/sales insiders declare to SEC. At this moment, the number of "sales", according to https://www.insiderbuystock.com is, on average, x4 times bigger than the number of "purchases". So I'd say that until we see at least closing the gap - the market, most likely, will still go down. When the turn happens - no one knows, but at least we can monitor that part. Thanks!
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Michael Kurek
@veryayskiy Agreed. Sales are much higher than buys right know for most stocks and the market as a whole.
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Lisna
The stock market is influenced by a multitude of factors including economic conditions, geopolitical events, corporate earnings, investor sentiment, and more. These factors can be highly complex and interconnected, making it difficult to accurately forecast market movements. To make informed decisions about the stock market, it is advisable to consult financial analysts, economists, or other experts who specialize in market analysis. They can provide insights and predictions based on the latest information and trends. Additionally, it's important to remember that investing in the stock market carries risks, and it's always a good idea to diversify investments and consider one's own financial goals and risk tolerance. If you need more information about stock market visit this site: https://www.sportiqo.com/
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