Launching today
Insightix
The same event, priced differently across markets
5 followers
The same event, priced differently across markets
5 followers
Insightix tracks the live probability of the same event across prediction markets and derivatives/sports data — and alerts you the moment they disagree. Crypto, sports & esports. De-vigged, normalized, apples-to-apples. Information only, not advice.
The discordance alerts on esports matchups caught me off guard — saw two platforms pricing the same game with a 12% gap that closed within minutes. Clean, no-noise feed and the de-vigged math actually lines up.
@bidavkubra60771 Love hearing this — those fast-closing esports gaps are some of the sharpest, because two platforms disagree and one just hasn't repriced yet. Glad the de-vigged math held up for you. If there's a line or vertical you'd want us to cover next, tell us — we're adding them
Really useful concept since mispricings across markets are where the edge lives. One thing that would make it even better is a backtested alert feed showing each divergence's eventual resolution, so I can see how often a given spread actually meant anything before acting on it.
@birsensfl7 100% — knowing how often a spread actually resolved is the line between signal and noise. Good news: we already log every divergence and its eventual resolution internally (it's how we validate the engine), so a per-signal "resolution history / hit-rate" is very buildable and near the top of our roadmap. Really appreciate you framing it so clearly
honestly this looks really useful for finding mispricings, one thing i'd love is a backtest mode where i can replay historical divergence alerts to see which ones actually moved the market afterward, basically a way to filter out noise before trusting the signals live
@tgulmara42328 This is exactly where we're headed, Under the hood we already keep a full observation ledger of every divergence we evaluate, plus a resolver that back-fills how each market actually settled — so the data for a "replay & see what moved" mode already exists. Surfacing it as a hit-rate / resolution view is high on our list. Would you want it as a filter (only show signals with a strong historical resolution rate) or a standalone backtest view? Thanks for the sharp feedback