Is anyone else getting better results from smaller, warmer outbound lists?

I've been doing about 20 linkedin dms a day for a while now and the thing that keeps surprising me is how little list size matters. a few hundred people who've just commented on a competitor's post or moved into the right role get far more replies than a big export filtered by job title.

curious what signals other founders actually use before reaching out. hiring posts, funding news, people following a competitor's page, something else? and has anyone found one that sounded great but turned out to be noise?