Growth prediction: How to predict the increase in number of transactions after a feature is added?
Hey Makers! I am just exploring about product design and management. I stumbled upon this problem of predicting the growth after a feature is added to an existing product. I know it's a bit vague of a question but I am not looking for specific solutions too. Let's understand the problem (generic) first. There is an app ABC which has 100 million monthly active users. The product owners are planning to introduce a feature Y which solves a very basic problem of the users. Let's assume it like a shop app. Users end up wasting their time to find out the item they want whereas there is data enough to predict what the user might want. The app is still doing good and so are the competitors. Even though it is not a big hurdle for the business, the users go through a tedious process which they don't address or think about but assume it is their fault at not being efficient. What is at stake is the UX purely. In order to solve this problem, the product people have come up with this idea which will be incorporated in form of feature Y. Now the question arises to quantify the benefits of building this feature at a *high* cost (both technically and operationally). How do you come up with that number? And going further, how do you justify it? What is being proposed is basically a hypothesis of a feature that must result in a good UX, but how can that be quantified? Please provide your views on the process. If there are any resources you refer to, please share them too. Thank you very much for your time :)