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Most retirement calculators assume markets follow a bell curve - which systematically underestimates tail risk, exactly when it matters most.
Retirement Lab uses fat-tail distributions instead, so extreme years appear at roughly the rate real markets produce them. Correlated asset returns, multiple withdrawal strategies, historical backtesting and black swan events at specific ages.
1,000 scenarios free.
Built by a solo developer who got tired of optimistic retirement math.
Retirement LabRetirement planning for the market that actually exists
Albertostarted a discussion
Why you're underestimating your retirement risk
Been building a retirement simulator on the side for a while. The thing that kept bothering me about existing tools is they all assume normally distributed returns - which makes the math clean but quietly underestimates how bad bad years can be. Launching Retirement Lab soon. Happy to answer questions about the math or the approach while I get ready.
Albertoleft a comment
Hello everyone 👋 I built this because I was planning my own retirement and every calculator gave me the same suspiciously optimistic output. Dig into the methodology and they all assume normally distributed returns - which sounds reasonable until you remember 2000, 2008, and 2020. Solo project that became a product. Happy to answer anything about the math or methodology - that's the part I...
Retirement LabRetirement planning for the market that actually exists