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Retirement Lab
Retirement planning for the market that actually exists
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Retirement planning for the market that actually exists
1 follower
Most retirement calculators assume markets follow a bell curve - which systematically underestimates tail risk, exactly when it matters most. Retirement Lab uses fat-tail distributions instead, so extreme years appear at roughly the rate real markets produce them. Correlated asset returns, multiple withdrawal strategies, historical backtesting and black swan events at specific ages. 1,000 scenarios free. Built by a solo developer who got tired of optimistic retirement math.
Hello everyone š
I built this because I was planning my own retirement and every calculator gave me the same suspiciously optimistic output. Dig into the methodology and they all assume normally distributed returns - which sounds reasonable until you remember 2000, 2008, and 2020.
Solo project that became a product. Happy to answer anything about the math or methodology - that's the part I actually care about getting right.
ā Free features:
Monte Carlo simulation (1,000 iterations)
Gaussian distribution
1 spending strategy (fixed withdrawal with inflation toggle)
Save up to 2 simulations
ā Pro features:
Monte Carlo simulation (50,000 iterations)
Gaussian & Fat-tail distributions (with skewness slider)
Dynamic withdrawal strategies (Guyton-Klinger guardrails, floor & ceiling, % of portfolio)
Save up to 5 simulations
Black swan events at specific ages
Historical stress test (1928-2025)