Launching today
TwoHeads
Turn any decision into a number
6 followers
Turn any decision into a number
6 followers
Describe a decision in plain language: a job offer, a startup bet, a big purchase, a negotiation. TwoHeads maps out your real options as a decision tree, estimates the probability of each outcome with a cited real-world analogue, and calculates the expected value of each path. Then you argue with it: every probability has a slider, so you can override the AI's assumptions with your own and watch the expected value recalculate live.
Does the AI cite sources for the probability analogues it picks, and can I swap in my own reference points if I disagree with the cases it draws from?
@pekkoalifapm Hey! It doesn't cite the sources/allow you to swap them yet, but I'll look into adding this ASAP. It does however allow you to override the AI's probability assumptions with your own. Have you used TwoHeads to analyse a decision yet?
How does it actually source those cited real-world analogues, and is the citation depth solid enough that I'd trust the probabilities, or am I going to spend half my time fact-checking the tree?
The slider for overriding probabilities is genius, made me realize I'd been anchoring way too hard on the AI's defaults. Tried it on a job offer last night and it actually changed which option I was leaning toward once I adjusted the equity upside estimate to something I actually believed.
the live recalculation when you drag a probability slider is so satisfying, makes the math feel like something you can actually argue with instead of just read