CovidCountries: Mathematical modelling of COVID-19

Hey Product Hunt! 👋 We are a team of developers and physicists and wanted to share with you our coronavirus prediction tool. 📰 Situation Coronavirus (COVID-19) is spreading fast and our governments must react decisively in order to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe around the globe. As a consequence almost all affected countries are locked down. 😕 Complication We need to predict the spread of the virus going forward to make reasonable decisions today. This is a difficult challenge and there are many different approaches. 💡 Solution - How does it work ? Our approach is purely mathematical. Predictions are made by fitting the available data to a function for logistic growth using non-linear regression. The specific regression used is a trust-region-reflective algorithm. This is a purely mathematical model based on the availabe data points. In human terms this means that the growth rate of the coronavirus seems to have the same shape as a logistic function. Hence we can look at the growth rates for a country and fit a logistic function to the past observations. Then we can use this function to give a rough estimate of future values. The estimates change daily. Please take this with a grain of salt. We are not epidemiologist or virus experts we can only do math. Stay safe folks! Finn