BearScout
Get Brier-scored against real prediction markets - free
3 followers
Get Brier-scored against real prediction markets - free
3 followers
BearScout is a free forecasting game: make probability calls on real prediction-market questions, get Brier-scored against the market's ask price at call time, climb a pseudonymous leaderboard. No real money — just find out if your judgment is signal or noise.
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How does the Brier scoring actually work if the market price keeps moving after I make a call — am I scored against the price at the exact moment I submit, or the final resolution?
@demet75124 Great question - you're benchmarked against the price at the exact moment you lock, never the final price. When you submit, we snapshot the market's ask (the tradable side). When the market officially resolves, two Brier scores are computed against that same outcome: yours = (your probability - outcome)^2, and the market's = (snapshot ask - outcome)^2. Your skill credit is the difference between the two. So price moves after your call neither help nor hurt you - the game is beating where the market stood when you called. For thin order books we cap the spread at 10 cents and clamp the snapshot to the 5-95% band so a junk quote can't become the benchmark. Full write-up: trader-bear.com/blog/scoring-forecasts-against-the-ask