Predict & Profit
Weather + inflation bots for Kalshi. Full source code.
2 followers
Weather + inflation bots for Kalshi. Full source code.
2 followers
Two automated trading bots for Kalshi prediction markets. Weather bot uses 4 ensemble systems (GFS, AIGEFS, ECMWF IFS, AIFS-ENS) — up to 164 forecast members. Only trades when 3 of 4 agree. Inflation bot uses Cleveland Fed nowcast plus FRED, BLS, and BEA signals. Full Python source included. Live track record at predictandprofit.io/results. Built for Python developers who want a working starting point they can modify. Not a black box.
Built a second version of Predict & Profit over the last couple of weeks.
The weather bot now runs on a 62-member hybrid ensemble instead of the old 31-member setup. It combines 31 GFS runs with 31 AI-powered AIGEFS runs, and only trades when the models line up with enough confidence. That made the filtering stricter, which is exactly what I wanted.
I also launched an econ bot focused on CPI and PCE contracts. That one uses Cleveland Fed nowcast data plus FRED energy signals to look for mispriced opportunities in Kalshi’s macro markets.
Everything is still built around the same idea: small size, hard data, transparency, and no hype. I show the losses too, not just the wins. The source code package includes the Python bot, setup guide, Kalshi API integration, PostgreSQL logging, and the ebook.
If you’re into prediction markets, algo trading, weather models, or macro data, I’d love your feedback:
predictandprofit.io
Built a much stronger second version of Predict & Profit.
The weather bot now uses a 62-member hybrid ensemble instead of the old 31-model setup. It combines 31 GFS runs with 31 AI-powered AIGEFS runs, which lets the bot be much stricter about confidence before it ever places a trade.
I also added an econ bot for CPI and PCE markets. That one uses Cleveland Fed nowcast data and FRED energy signals to look for contracts that may be mispriced.
What I care about most is not making the bot busier. It is making it more selective.
Less noise. Better filters. More transparency.
The full package includes the Python source code, Kalshi API integration, PostgreSQL logging, setup docs, and the ebook. Existing buyers also get the v2.0 upgrade path.
Would love feedback from anyone interested in prediction markets, algo trading, weather models, or macro signals.
Shipped v2.2 this week. Here's what actually changed.
The weather bot had a bug where it was silently rejecting all NO-side edges and only ever placing YES trades. Fixed. The econ bot was treating submitted orders as confirmed fills, which made P&L, budget accounting, and the kill switch all unreliable. Fixed.
Also added 8 new cities to the weather bot (Dallas, Houston, Seattle, San Francisco, Philadelphia, New Orleans, Las Vegas, Minneapolis), rebuilt the dashboard with 6 tabs including a live Kalshi reconciliation tool, and added a self-check script (bot_doctor.py) that validates your entire setup before you go live.
Full changelog at predictandprofit.io. Live results at predictandprofit.io/results.
This is the reliability release. The bots now account for reality more honestly.