Extropy builds representative synthetic populations and simulates how they react to real-world events. Every agent reasons individually from their own finances, job, commute, politics, and social network. We just published two studies: simulating Americans through a US-Iran war, and predicting the 2026 House midterms benchmarked against Kalshi. Open source. Define a scenario, build a population, run the simulation.
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Maker
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Hey PH! I'm Dev. My co-founder Adithya and I built Extropy because we were frustrated that population-level behavioral prediction was locked behind enterprise contracts and six-figure consulting engagements.
The core idea: instead of polling 1,000 people or running a focus group, build a synthetic population where every individual reasons through a scenario from their own circumstances. A 49-year-old rural Republican with a 60-mile commute and a kid in high school experiences $6 gas differently than a 31-year-old suburban independent with no kids and a short drive. Extropy models that difference.
Our Iran study found things no poll would surface. The strongest predictor of crisis impact wasn't party affiliation, it was how much money you had in the bank the day the bombs dropped. 73% of indebted Americans hit serious strain vs 24% of those with savings. Same war, same gas prices, completely different experience. (https://extropy.run/blog/iran-st...)
We're open source because we think this capability shouldn't be gated. Would love your feedback on the studies and the tool itself.