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I trade tennis and got frustrated that most "prediction" sites show win probability with no reference to the market. Knowing a player has 60% chance to win means nothing if Pinnacle already has them at 62%.
The model (XGBoost, ~440k matches, Glicko-2 + Elo features) outputs its own probability, and the app shows the gap against Pinnacle's implied odds — I call it VOPO (Value Over Pinnacle Odds). When that gap is > 12% and the model is on the favorite side, it fires a "Green EV" alert.
Tennis GlickoA tennis EV tool that compares model probability vs market
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I've been obsessed with tennis statistics for a while and ended up going deeper than I expected. The model uses XGBoost with Glicko-2 and Elo ratings as core features, trained on roughly 440k ATP/WTA/Challenger/ITF matches. Current holdout accuracy is 71.0% with a Brier Score of 0.191 — which is honestly decent but not magic.
Tennis GlickoA tennis EV tool that compares model probability vs market