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Garrett Gauruderleft a comment
Built OutcomeEdge after trading weather markets on Polymarket and Kalshi and noticing how often prices were driven by headlines or gut feel rather than data. Weather markets feel objective, but uncertainty and mispricing are common. OutcomeEdge puts weather models and market odds side-by-side to help traders understand risk, avoid bad bets, and occasionally spot asymmetric opportunities. It’s...
OutcomeEdgeFind mispriced odds in prediction markets
OutcomeEdge helps prediction market traders identify mispriced odds on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.
Instead of hype or “signals,” OutcomeEdge compares market prices to data-driven probability models, highlighting where the market may be over- or under-estimating outcomes.
Designed as a decision-support tool, not a trading bot- helping users filter bad trades, spot asymmetric opportunities, and understand risk before committing capital.
OutcomeEdgeFind mispriced odds in prediction markets
OptionEV introduces a new way to analyze options trades using true expected value and probability modeling—not guesses or generic broker metrics. The platform combines a normal-distribution engine with LSMC simulations to show real edge, outcome probabilities, and optimal hold/exit timing. It turns complex quant logic into simple, visual insights that help traders trade smarter and avoid low-EV setups.
OptionEVSee the true EV and edge behind every options trade
Garrett Gauruderleft a comment
Hey everyone! 👋 I built OptionEV because I got tired of making options trades based on gut feel or generic broker metrics that don’t actually tell you whether a trade has statistical edge. Traders deserve clarity, not guesswork. I wanted a tool that could show the true expected value of a trade—probability of profit, outcome distributions, and when it actually makes sense to hold or exit....
OptionEVSee the true EV and edge behind every options trade