Hey Hunters - Govind here. Credibility frame first: I'm a former institutional trader (Sydney-based, ex-prop firm, traded allocated capital). That matters for this product specifically because most Bitcoin cycle models on the retail internet are built by anonymous Twitter accounts or crypto-native creators with no exposure to traditional multi-factor risk management. SMM is built from the institutional side of the desk - multi-factor confluence, lookahead-bias-free percentile rank, expanding-window normalisation, calibrated zones not vibes. The frustration that drove the build was the gap between "free tools showing one indicator with no context" and "paid services at USD 40 a month bundling 200 indicators you'll never use." Neither approach passes the institutional smell test. SMM takes 48 signals across 6 weighted tiers - Cycle Timing (30%), Valuation (25%), Sentiment (20%), Rotation (10%), Miner (10%), Macro (5%) - and runs them through a piecewise calibration curve tuned against every BTC cycle top and bottom from 2013 to 2021. Output is a single 0 to 100 score with a calibrated cycle-position zone (Accumulation / Neutral / Caution / Distribution / Cycle Top). 7-of-7 in-zone cycle calls across BTC history. Methodology is fully documented on the page including tier weights, calibration curve knees, anchor points, and rationale for each signal. Both raw and calibrated scores emitted so you can interrogate or recalibrate. Free embeds for journalists and other sites. AUD-native with one-click USD toggle on every chart. Genuinely interested in feedback from the crypto research community here - especially on the indicator selection at Tier 2 (Miner) and the calibration curve methodology. AMA.

SatoshiMacro Model (SMM)

A former institutional trader's Bitcoin cycle model. Free.

A former institutional trader's Bitcoin cycle model. Free.