We apply statistical analysis to prediction market data to predict the date of an AI model release and the confidence interval. Users get notified before a release and the day off so they can stay up to date! I built this for myself because I'm curious when the next model will be released then had some friends start using it.
I built this because I was always curious when the next Claude or ChatGPT model was being released. I used to go to Polymarket and Kalshi to see what traders/insiders thought but it was always shown in tranches: 12% by August 15, 40% by Sept. 1, 80% by Sept. 15, etc. Using basic stats, we can give an estimated date and confidence interval! Once I built it and showed a few friends, they started using it too. Then they wanted to be notified so they didn't have to keep checking the website so I added an email feature.