Launching today
Obvious Later
Make your call before it's obvious
2 followers
Make your call before it's obvious
2 followers
Pick an open question about space, energy, biotech or AI and record a 0 to 100% forecast. The crowd's view stays hidden until you commit. Every call is timestamped and locked, so later you can show what you believed before the news. Free to use.
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Hi Product Hunt. I made Obvious Later because hindsight is cheap and almost nobody keeps a record of what they actually believed before something happened.
You open a question, slide to a probability from 0 to 100% and save it. Only then does the site show you what the crowd thinks. Your call gets a server timestamp and can't be edited. If you change your mind you add a revision on top, and the original stays visible.
Every question has written resolution criteria and a closing date, plus the evidence behind it and a skeptical view. A good one to start with is whether Helion will say by June 30, 2027 that its Polaris fusion machine has produced electricity. Helion narrowed that goal this year and has missed its own dates before, so I expect people to land far apart on it.
To be upfront, this is an early beta. Nothing has resolved yet, so there are no track records to show off, and on most questions you'd be among the first to answer. Forecasting is free and no money rides on anything. The site works in English, Portuguese and Spanish.
What would make you come back to a question a month from now? That's the part I'm still figuring out, and I'd really like your take.