Hey Product Hunt! I built Live Bet Intelligence because most football prediction content online is gut-feel takes with no real methodology behind them. This tool runs a Poisson expected-goals model — a well-established approach from sports analytics research — blends it with de-vigged bookmaker odds for a confidence-weighted read, and shows you the resulting probabilities. It's a statistics tool, not betting advice, and every decision is entirely up to you (18+, please gamble responsibly). You can try the core model free, no signup required, via the Free Calculator link. The full version adds automatic team-stat lookups, Kelly-criterion bankroll sizing, live in-play updates, and a results journal to track how the model performs over time. Built this solo — would love feedback, especially on which leagues or stats you'd want covered next.

Live Bet Intelligence

A free Poisson model for football match probabilities

A free Poisson model for football match probabilities