The Signal and the Noise

Why so many predictions fail - but some don't

get it

Reviews

Discussion

MakersThere are no makers yet
You need to become a Contributor to join the discussion - Find out how.
Peter Hoogendijk
Peter HoogendijkHunter@plhetp · Online Marketeer
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
Lucas Lindsey
Lucas Lindsey@urbnist · Executive Director, Domi Station
@plhetp It's a great read. Really influenced my thinking in grad school when studying population and urban growth projections.
Jacob Bendicksen
Jacob Bendicksen@jacobbendicksen · student @yale
Love this book -- great intro to statistics in the 'real world.'
Vishal Agarwal
Vishal Agarwal@vishal1982 · CMO @ Choxi, CEO @ Itsacheckmate.com
This book became kind of surreal for me because I started reading it about 2 weeks before the election (Nov 8th, 2016) and finished right around the election time. Obviously during the election all one could hear and read about was Nate Silver (and to an extent Sam Wang?) so to hear him talk & tweet about his strategies and then be reading the book at the same time kind of gave an in-depth understanding about his mindset. It is very well detailed, very well structured on how he tackles individual forecasting topics one at a time. And then in the latter half he tries to explain why and how we mistake signal from the noise, and what we can do to avoid that mistake. Definitely an interesting read but for me it will always have the flavor of the 2016 elections whenever I think about this book - as if Nate Silver & elections were not already inextricably linked already before this.