Forecast

Forecast

A community for crowdsourced predictions. Made by Facebook.

3 followers

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Forecast is a community for crowdsourced predictions, starting with a focus on COVID-19 and its impact on the world. To join the community, please request access to the Forecast Beta Testers group (facebook.com/groups/forecastbeta/) and download the app.
Forecast gallery image
Forecast gallery image
Forecast gallery image
Launch tags:News•Fintech•Social Media
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What do you think? …

Taylor Hughes
Forecast
Maker
Hello Product Hunt fam! The Forecast team is super excited to show everyone what we've been working on this year. We are a small team of hands-on builders in San Francisco, and we think this product could turn into something really really interesting. It's a very strange time in the world for all of us, and everyone lately has been spending a lot of time thinking about what comes next: When will shelter-in-place end? How big of an impact will COVID-19 have on all of our lives in 2021? Forecast is an attempt to create structured spaces around specific forward-looking questions, where everyday experts can shine and share what they know with the world. Hope you'll give it a shot.
Misbah Ashraf
@taylorhughes I'd love to give it a try! Possible to get invite?
Taylor Hughes
Forecast
Maker
@misbahspeaks We will be working through the backlog here probably over the next few days! https://www.facebook.com/groups/...
Misbah Ashraf
@taylorhughes Requested to join!
Taylor Hughes
Forecast
Maker
@misbahspeaks 🙌🏻
Prashant
@taylorhughes I have sent a request long back, could you please add me. I am in Asia region!
Brenden Mulligan
Podpage: Podcast Websites
Looks really interesting. Can't wait to try it out and SO HAPPY TO SEE @taylorhughes SHIPPINGGGGG!!!!!!!! Your screenshots look great!
Taylor Hughes
Forecast
Maker
@mulligan thank you! excited for people to try it. :)
Charles Martin
Interesting @taylorhughes. Using the bottomless pit of FB users to find super-forecasters. Competing or collaborating with https://www.gjopen.com/?
Stephen Weiss
@taylorhughes - interested in how this compares to the Good Judgment Project (https://goodjudgment.com/) (also referenced by @charles_martin ) also - is the goal to build reputation as a forecaster?
Taylor Hughes
Forecast
Maker
@charles_martin @stephenweiss1 The goal in the app is to climb the leaderboard, which is based on points that you earn from buying positions in forecasts, and then those positions gaining value (by either resolving correctly, or by the crowd buying in the same direction). In the short term this can come from betting the way the crowd bets, which feels a lot like polling — but long term this should align with predicting outcomes correctly. You can imagine this leading to accurate predictors winning the market overall and having outsize influence in future predictions, etc.
Edison Espinosa
Fb doesn't predict online behaviors enough lol
Taylor Hughes
Forecast
Maker
@edisonjoao6871 very different type of prediction :) you could imagine this more as a way to structure public conversations around specific provable outcomes, rather than trying to predict the future per se.
Ivan Braun
Icons8
That's super interesting. Do people predict either Yes or No, or are they giving the weights?
Ivan Braun
Icons8
What I'm trying to ask is: if you bring a roulette and ask us "Will it hit red?", it makes sense to respond "no", because the chance is <50%. Q: Will it poll result in the probability of red to zero?
Taylor Hughes
Forecast
Maker
@visualpharm You can see some of the questions/responses on https://forecastapp.net — there are some yes/no questions and some "linked markets" where you have multiple choices to choose from. (The implementation of linked markets is actually to use several underlying yes/no questions.) You buy in on a certain outcome at the current odds, which are based on what people have previously bought — so you're essentially betting that your chosen outcome's likelihood (and thus, value) increases by more people buying that outcome. It's all fairly confusing. :)
Gianni D'Alerta
?makers How will you deal with forecaster bias? this is not a market but wanted to pose the question. "One way the prediction market gathers information is through James Surowiecki's phrase, "The Wisdom of Crowds", in which a group of people with a sufficiently broad range of opinions can collectively be cleverer than any individual. However, this information gathering technique can also lead to the failure of the prediction market. Oftentimes, the people in these crowds are skewed in their independent judgments due to peer pressure, panic, bias, and other breakdowns developed out of a lack of diversity of opinion." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pr...
Taylor Hughes
Forecast
Maker
@giannidalerta Good question! This is something we'll be monitoring closely, especially in early stages. :)
Gianni D'Alerta
@taylorhughes are you guys hand selecting your forecasters? How will you know their bias? seems like a difficult task on yes/no answers, without seeing their past. I guess overtime you can see their bais across multiple topics.
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