Forecast

A community for crowdsourced predictions. Made by Facebook.

Forecast is a community for crowdsourced predictions, starting with a focus on COVID-19 and its impact on the world. To join the community, please request access to the Forecast Beta Testers group (facebook.com/groups/forecastbeta/) and download the app.
Discussion
Would you recommend this product?
5 Reviews5.0/5
Hello Product Hunt fam! The Forecast team is super excited to show everyone what we've been working on this year. We are a small team of hands-on builders in San Francisco, and we think this product could turn into something really really interesting. It's a very strange time in the world for all of us, and everyone lately has been spending a lot of time thinking about what comes next: When will shelter-in-place end? How big of an impact will COVID-19 have on all of our lives in 2021? Forecast is an attempt to create structured spaces around specific forward-looking questions, where everyday experts can shine and share what they know with the world. Hope you'll give it a shot.
@taylorhughes I'd love to give it a try! Possible to get invite?
@misbahspeaks We will be working through the backlog here probably over the next few days! https://www.facebook.com/groups/...
@taylorhughes I have sent a request long back, could you please add me. I am in Asia region!
Looks really interesting. Can't wait to try it out and SO HAPPY TO SEE @taylorhughes SHIPPINGGGGG!!!!!!!! Your screenshots look great!
@mulligan thank you! excited for people to try it. :)
Interesting @taylorhughes. Using the bottomless pit of FB users to find super-forecasters. Competing or collaborating with https://www.gjopen.com/?
Fb doesn't predict online behaviors enough lol
@edisonjoao6871 very different type of prediction :) you could imagine this more as a way to structure public conversations around specific provable outcomes, rather than trying to predict the future per se.
That's super interesting. Do people predict either Yes or No, or are they giving the weights?
What I'm trying to ask is: if you bring a roulette and ask us "Will it hit red?", it makes sense to respond "no", because the chance is <50%. Q: Will it poll result in the probability of red to zero?
@visualpharm You can see some of the questions/responses on https://forecastapp.net — there are some yes/no questions and some "linked markets" where you have multiple choices to choose from. (The implementation of linked markets is actually to use several underlying yes/no questions.) You buy in on a certain outcome at the current odds, which are based on what people have previously bought — so you're essentially betting that your chosen outcome's likelihood (and thus, value) increases by more people buying that outcome. It's all fairly confusing. :)