Hey Product Hunt! Prognix started as a research experiment: can frontier LLMs actually predict the future - and if we make them compete, does the ensemble beat any single model? The answer surprised me. Individual models are inconsistent - Claude might say 72% on a geopolitical question while Grok says 45%. But when you aggregate predictions from every major frontier model and apply extremization (a technique from forecasting literature that sharpens consensus toward well-calibrated extremes), the ensemble consistently outperforms any single model over time. So I built the infrastructure to test this at scale. Prognix collects real-time context through a multi-agent research pipeline - news, market data, web sources - feeds it to every frontier LLM, extracts structured probabilities, and computes ensemble consensus across 1000+ active questions sourced from Polymarket, and user submissions. Every prediction is fully transparent: you can read the chain-of-thought reasoning from each model, see exactly where they disagree, and understand why. We then score all models with Brier scores against real outcomes, maintaining a live accuracy leaderboard. It's basically a continuous benchmarking experiment for AI forecasting ability. The early results have been fascinating - some models are consistently overconfident, others are conservative but well-calibrated, and the ensemble sits in a sweet spot that's hard to beat. I'd love to hear from this community: What real-world questions would you want AI consensus on? Would you use an API to plug these probabilities into your own workflows? This is still early - the research keeps evolving, and every new model we add changes the dynamics. Would love your thoughts!

Prognix

AI models predict the future. Only one consensus survives

AI models predict the future. Only one consensus survives